The real estate market is in crisis a serious crisis for two years and waiting Bercy Arbitrations Concerning the 2025 Budget sector operators were hoping for a strong signal from the government. Unfortunately, many were disappointed when they discovered the Finance Bill (PLF) for 2025, presented last Thursday.
“Michel Barnier had shown great ambitions in the field of housing,” recalls Pierre Madec, economist at the French Observatory of the Economic Situation (OFCE) and specialist in real estate issues. But we do not find these ambitions in the measures announced. In my opinion they are not up to the crisis that new buildings are experiencing today. »
“Pretty worrying”
In detail, the PLF first ratified the end of the Pinel system, which allows you to benefit from a tax reduction in exchange for the financing of new rental housing. In the document there is not a line that refers to it, confirming its disappearance scheduled for 31 December 2024. Not surprisingly, since Pinel has been criticized because it is considered expensive (from 1.5 to 2 billion per year) and not effective enough: “The problem is not so much eliminating it, but rather not reintegrating the budget savings generated by its elimination into a new system,” regrets Pierre Madec.
On the energy restructuring front, MaPrimeRénov’s credits will decrease by around one billion euros compared to 2024, or by 2.3 billion in 2025: «The objectives are less ambitious compared to last year and it is rather worrying because the need for restructuring is very important”, breathes Pierre Madec.
Parliament will decide
The zero-interest loan (PTZ) for first-time buyers will be extended to the entire territory while until now it was only applied in tense areas. Will single-family homes be eligible? It would not be “absurd” “outside hyper-urban areas and as long as they do not consume too much space”, the Minister of Housing, Valérie Létard, said on Saturday. “It will have a significant budgetary cost,” observes Pierre Madec, wondering about “the government’s objectives in terms of ending the artificialization of land. »
Finally, the tax loophole for furnished non-business rentals (LMNP) looks set to fail. Applied to long and medium-term rentals, but also to Airbnb-type rentals, it allows you to benefit from generous tax reductions but is considered too attractive compared to long-term rentals. Problem, according to Pierre Madec: in exchange for this elimination, nothing is done to “make taxation on annual rents more attractive”.
All these measures, aimed more at “increasing tax revenues” than at defending the “housing policy”, judges Pierre Madec, are still just projects that will probably be modified during the debates in Parliament. What will be left at the end of the year, when the budget is voted on? Parliamentarians “will have to assume their responsibilities”, warned Michel Barnier.